Should The Tigers Trade Spencer Turnbull For A Big Bat? // My Response To Lynn Henning

 My family knows that I am not a big fan of Lynn Henning. He rarely writes anything I agree with and when he does, it's a big deal. His latest piece was right after Spencer Turnbull's no-hitter and he voiced on his opinion that the Tigers should probably trade Turnbull for a big bat. Unfortunately, I cannot link to the article like I wanted to but you can try searching "lynn henning spencer turnbull trade" and see if you can find the piece.

To begin, we have to look at where Henning is coming from. April was a terrible month for the Tigers. We dug ourselves quite a hole with a lot of losses. Our bats were almost non-existent for long stretches. It was bad. But there is more going on than quiet bats.

It Starts With Pitching

The Tigers radio announces have, for years, talked about how winning teams start with pitching. If you don't have pitching, you will struggle. During our rough stretch with the bats this year, our starting pitching was SUPERB!!! They kept us in each game. It was hard to be constantly losing 1 or 2 to nothing, but those scores meant we had the chance to win. Spencer Turnbull is part of that great pitching and it would be foolish to breakup a pitching staff that is doing so well on a team that is still rebuilding but getting close to being competitive again. This is not a veteran pitcher; Turnbull is young still so there is no urgency to trade him.

Our bullpen has had its ups and downs and wasn't great during our quiet bat stretch, but we know it can be better and it is showing improvement.

 

Defense Loses Games

You know what else was sterling during the bat struggles? Our defense. This makes sense because great defense goes hand in hand with great pitching. Teams who aren't making the plays and/or are making errors will give up more runs, leading to more lost games. The defense is part of the equation to keeping those games low-scoring and giving us a chance to come back.

And Then There Are The Bats

Let's talk about our bats. We are a cobbled-together team. There are a few veterans but they are here on a one or two year contract. The turn-over of veterans has been crazy during this rebuild. Then we have the youngsters who, even though many of them are in their third or fourth (or more!) year in the big leagues, are still learning. Many of them have gone up and down over those years between Detroit and Toledo and we also don't have much in the way of set positioning for these guys. It's a lot. 

We weren't scoring runs, but that doesn't mean we weren't in the position to do so. The Tigers are walking and stealing bases at a rate that I don't remember ever seeing in the ten or so years that I have been following the team. It's a different brand of baseball than Detroit is used to, but is that a bad thing? 

Another thing that Jim & Dan talk about on the radio is how the best teams are the ones who take the extra base and play small ball just as much, if not more, than they hit home runs. They talk about how a team who hits doubles is going to hit home runs. The Tigers hit doubles. And we have guys who have the power and potential to hit home runs. Are any of them going to be 30 home run hitters? No, probably not. But we tried for years to win it all with power hitters and fell short. Maybe it is time to try something different.

The Tigers are a different team. We are walking, stealing bases, and taking the extra base. That did not happen in the past. Our starting pitching, defense, and baserunning have all been excellent, for the most part. Our bullpen and offense has scuffled a bit but is starting to pick up. We have guys with power who can hit the occasional home run. So do we need a big bat? That depends on your goal and what style of baseball you want to play. This team is not going to be a home run team. Why get rid of a part of what's working to add a piece that isn't your style of baseball? I think Henning is looking at things from the perspective of the Tigers teams from years past but that's not who we are anymore. 

I don't think we need to be trading for a "big bat". I think we need more consistency for our players (knowing where they are playing, for example) and I think we need to change our mindset to be one of every 90 feet and smaller ball. If you expect home runs, then you'll be disappointed. If you expect smart baseball, welcome to Detroit.

Pitching

I am blown away.

This is not what I expected. It's not even what I hoped for.

Our pitching is... dominating.

Let's be honest for a moment. There wasn't a lot certain about our pitching going into this year. You know what you'll get from Fulmer, but he has to stay healthy. Boyd you had a pretty solid idea of, and in the bullpen, your only certainties were Alex Wilson and Shane Greene. The rest? Huge question marks. 

Would Zimmermann be the pitcher of the first month of his career with the Tigers? What would new acquisitions Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano do? Who would get the fifth starter job? And the bullpen was even more unknown.

I almost wonder if all the low expectations and rejection of sorts of the Tigers are making the guys want to prove something. There are zero expectations for this team. That hasn't been the case in years. Maybe that makes a difference. 

Our starting pitching is strong. Yes, we're losing, but it's early and unusually cold for this time of year, so I'm not worried about our bats. But our pitching is keeping us in every game. During the spring, based on what I was reading and hearing from Jim and Dan, I was not happy about Fiers and Liriano. They sounded like they were going to be hindrances. Not as such so far. They have turned out two solid starts each. 

The bullpen has been quiet incredible. There has been a hiccup here and there, but overall, guys are shutting down the opposing batters. We really didn't know what a lot of these guys were capable of, or they had been so up and down, you never knew what you'd get. 

It's early. Pitching is going to go into slumps. But look at how these guys are doing when it's cold and they can't feel their hands or grip the ball. I think there performance in these conditions are very promising for us going forward. 

No one is expecting anything great from us this year. I just wonder if these guys have set out to prove the baseball world wrong.  

Don't Freak Out

I'm not going to spend too much time on this, but...

DON'T FREAK OUT YET!!!!!!

It's only eight games in and, already, the topic of "discussion" is the bullpen. I seriously think that even if we got a bullpen like the Royals had a couple years ago, the sports writers would still complain. I think that all they know now is to worry about the bullpen. I think the fans are conditioned to gripe about our relievers. 

The thing is - and I know you've never heard this before from me - no team will be great at every position. 

Let that sink in for a moment.

You CAN NOT have a superb offense, defense, starting rotation, & bullpen. It's not realistic. One or more of those will be at least average. You can hope for average. But you can't have an above average team in everything. 

If that's what you want and/or, are expecting, then maybe sports isn't your thing. I'd recommend writing fantasy novels. 

Eight games in people. Let's not sound the alarm yet. 

 

The Sanchez/Pelfrey Dilemma

What do you do with a starter who can't start and you can't trade? Seems like a major problem. Maybe not.

The answer seems pretty easy: you put them in the bullpen. Sanchez was put in the 'pen for a time this past season and did very well in that time. It might be the best he's done since his ERA title year. I wrote a post during the season on my main blog that talks a little bit about this solution:  http://smylinggirl.blogspot.com/2016/09/sanchez-pelfrey-to-pen-keep-rookies-in.html

I don't want to rehash all the same points, but what seemed like a great solution then seems to be the best way forward. I'm not the only one who thinks this. One of the Detroit News sports writers wrote this great article that is worth reading: http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2016/11/21/mccosky-how-tigers-might-get-most-value-out-sanchez-pelfrey/94223878/


We'll see where the Tigers go. Since it seems so obvious and it worked for us, briefly, in the past, and has worked for other teams, it makes sense to believe that's what the Tigers will do. That's not to say we won't see Sanchez or Pelfrey in the rotation over the course of the season. But at least to start, I hope we see them in the bullpen.